Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff Admits Underestimating Bitcoin’s Role in Underground Economy
Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard economist and former IMF chief economist, has acknowledged that he underestimated bitcoin’s staying power, fueled by its growing use in the global underground economy.
In 2018, Rogoff predicted bitcoin (BTC) was more likely to plunge to $100 than soar to $100,000 within a decade. Back then, bitcoin traded below $10,000.
Yet, bitcoin defied expectations by climbing above $100,000 earlier this year—a tenfold increase since Rogoff’s prediction.
With bitcoin hovering around $113,000 on Tuesday, Rogoff reflected on his earlier forecast, admitting he had been “far too optimistic” about U.S. regulators cracking down on cryptocurrencies.
In a post on X, Rogoff criticized the regulatory response as too lax, allowing bitcoin to thrive despite concerns over tax evasion and illicit activities.
He confessed he underestimated bitcoin’s competition with fiat currencies as a transactional tool in the estimated $20 trillion underground economy, which supports a floor under its price—a topic he explores in his recent book, Our Dollar, Your Problem.
Rogoff also called out a “blatant conflict of interest,” noting that regulators themselves hold significant cryptocurrency assets—potentially hundreds of millions or more—without facing consequences.
