Bitcoin’s Unlikely Dance Partner: Japan’s Bond Market Takes the Lead
A new macro narrative is taking shape as Bitcoin increasingly mirrors moves in Japan’s long-end government bonds, signaling a deeper shift in global financial flows.
Weston Nakamura, the founder of Across The Spread and a prominent voice in global macro analysis, points to a surprising relationship forming between Bitcoin (BTC) and Japan’s 30-year government bond (JGB) yields — a divergence from its historical correlation with U.S. tech stocks like the Nasdaq 100.
As both BTC and long-end JGB yields climbed to new highs in recent months, Nakamura argues this is no coincidence. “Bitcoin seems to be shadowing JGBs more than anything else right now,” he said, emphasizing that recent price surges tied to narratives like Trump’s election win or the approval of U.S. spot BTC ETFs were short-lived compared to the persistent alignment with JGB movements.
This isn’t just a knock-on effect from the U.S. Treasury market, Nakamura contends. It’s about Japan’s unique macro dynamics setting the tone. He points to comments from U.S. Treasury official Scott Bessent, who recently stated that global—not domestic—factors are influencing Treasury yields, with Japan explicitly named.
If U.S. monetary policy is increasingly shaped by the 10-year yield, and that yield is being steered by what’s happening in Tokyo, Nakamura posits that Japan might now be one of the most underappreciated levers in global finance.
His conclusion: Japan’s bond market is no longer a quiet corner of global fixed income. It has become a key compass for global asset prices — including crypto, equities, and even FX markets. For investors, that means one thing: “Watch Japan. Closely.”
