Downside fears for bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) have eased sharply ahead of the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cut on Sept. 17, with options market data signaling growing investor confidence. The pace of the next price rally will depend largely on the size of the rate reduction.
BTC’s seven-day call/put skew, which measures the relative demand for bullish versus bearish options, has recovered to near zero from a bearish 4% last week, according to Amberdata. Longer-term 30- and 60-day skews, while slightly negative, have also rebounded. Ether shows a similar pattern.
Skew readings reflect market sentiment: positive values indicate bullish positioning in calls, while negative skews point to higher demand for puts or downside protection. The recovery in options aligns with renewed price momentum—BTC has risen over 4% to $116,000, and ETH is up nearly 8% to $4,650, according to CoinDesk.
Traders are pricing in a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed cut to 4%-4.25%, though a surprise 50-bps move remains possible. Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, said a 50-bps cut would serve as a strong “+gamma buy signal” for BTC, ETH, SOL, and gold. Deribit-listed SOL options already show strong bullish sentiment, with calls trading at a 4–5 volatility premium over puts.
If the Fed meets expectations with a 25-bps cut, BTC is likely to continue a gradual upward grind, while ETH may take a week or more to retest all-time highs above $5,000.
