Bitcoin (BTC $88,395.55) is hovering near a key long-term support level that has held for three weeks, keeping bulls on edge. In contrast, shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest publicly listed holder of bitcoin, have already slipped below this “safety net,” signaling potential downside risk for the cryptocurrency.
The level in focus is the 100-week simple moving average (SMA), which tracks the average price over roughly two years. Widely followed by technical analysts, the 100-week SMA serves as a benchmark for long-term trend shifts and critical support.
For bitcoin, this moving average has helped stabilize the pullback from all-time highs above $126,000. Analysts liken it to a safety net: a bounce here could fuel hopes of a bullish rebound.
A break below the 100-week SMA, however, could trigger additional selling as holders exit positions and bearish sentiment grows. MicroStrategy offers a cautionary tale, having fallen below this level in November. Previously, MSTR also led bitcoin lower when it breached the 50-week SMA, another widely monitored long-term metric.
For BTC bulls, defending the 100-week SMA is crucial. Maintaining this level could spark a rebound, while a breakdown risks deeper losses following MSTR’s trajectory.
