Bitcoin Rebounds After Geopolitical Jitters, Holding Above Key On-Chain Support at $98,200
Bitcoin weathered heightened volatility over the weekend as geopolitical tensions rattled markets, but the cryptocurrency has bounced back, finding solid support above a critical on-chain level.
The short-term holder realized price (STH RP) for bitcoin currently sits at $98,200. This figure represents the average on-chain acquisition price of BTC held outside of exchange reserves and moved within the past 155 days, according to data from Glassnode.
STH RP is calculated using on-chain analytics to distinguish between short-term and long-term holders, offering valuable insights into market sentiment. The realized price itself reflects the average price at which the entire circulating bitcoin supply last changed hands on-chain. By narrowing this focus to coins moved recently, the STH RP captures the activity of holders who are statistically more likely to sell, making it a sensitive gauge of market stress or confidence.
Volatility Strikes Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Over the weekend, bitcoin prices dipped sharply amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran and growing fears of potential conflict involving the United States. With traditional financial markets closed, some investors were forced to liquidate bitcoin holdings—not necessarily by choice, but to free up cash amid uncertainty.
Historically, bitcoin trading above the STH RP has signaled bullish conditions, whereas trading below this level often corresponds with bearish trends or periods of consolidation.
A Historical Perspective
Between June and October 2024, ahead of the U.S. presidential election, bitcoin prices remained below the STH RP, which then hovered around $62,000. A similar pattern emerged between February and April 2025, when prices fell below the STH RP level of approximately $92,000.
Outlook Remains Cautiously Bullish
Despite the geopolitical-driven selloff, bitcoin has staged a robust rebound, reclaiming levels above $100,000 and recently trading around $101,000. For bullish momentum to persist, it’s crucial for BTC to hold above the $98,200 STH RP threshold. Maintaining this level would signal that short-term holders remain in profit and are less likely to sell, supporting continued upward price action.
