Bitcoin CME Futures Spread Shrinks to $495, Indicating Market Shift Away from ‘Trump Bump’
The expectation that a pro-crypto President would fuel a prolonged Bitcoin rally appears to be fading, as broader economic forces take precedence in shaping market sentiment.
Following Donald Trump’s election victory on Nov. 5, Bitcoin experienced a surge in bullish sentiment. However, that optimism has since dissipated, as seen in the declining spread between CME bitcoin (BTC) futures contracts.
The spread between “continuous” next-month and front-month BTC futures has contracted to $495—the lowest since Nov. 5—after hitting a peak of $1,705 on Dec. 17, according to TradingView data. This full retracement suggests that the post-election rally has completely unwound, signaling reduced bullish expectations.
“The tightening spread between front-month and next-month CME Bitcoin futures implies that traders are becoming more cautious with their price projections,” noted Thomas Erdösi, head of product at CF Benchmarks, in an interview with CoinDesk.
The market’s shift away from the “Trump bump” suggests that investors are once again prioritizing macroeconomic factors over political narratives.
“We’ve observed a significant repricing in the front contract basis since March, indicating that the short-term euphoria from Trump’s election has now been fully priced in, and the market is adjusting to broader economic conditions,” Erdösi added.
This shift is evident in overall market performance. Since early February, Bitcoin has declined by 20%, while the Nasdaq—Wall Street’s technology-heavy stock index—has dropped 8%. Investors have been responding to a mix of geopolitical uncertainties, Trump’s tariff policies, and persistent concerns over inflation and economic growth.
Adding to market disappointment was the lack of new Bitcoin purchases in Trump’s Strategic Digital Asset Reserve plan. Last week, Trump signed an executive order establishing a strategic reserve consisting of BTC seized through enforcement actions.
“The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announcement did not meet market expectations. Many traders had anticipated that the reserve would involve fresh Bitcoin acquisitions, but instead, the plan was to hold onto confiscated BTC rather than sell it. While this move is a long-term positive, it still triggered a short-term price correction,” said Ian Balina, CEO of Token Metrics, in a statement to CoinDesk.
Futures Market Still in Contango
Despite the narrowing spread in CME Bitcoin futures, the overall market structure remains in contango, meaning that futures contracts with longer maturities continue to trade at a premium to shorter-term ones. This structure is typical due to factors such as financing costs, storage expenses, and expectations for future price gains.
“Perpetual funding rates are still positive, and the futures curve remains in contango, suggesting that the recent decline is driven more by unleveraged spot selling rather than a broader market downturn,” Erdösi explained.
As macroeconomic dynamics continue to shape Bitcoin’s price action, investors will be closely monitoring potential catalysts that could drive the next major market movement.
