Bitcoin’s current period of tight consolidation is increasingly resembling the range-bound trading seen in early 2025 that ultimately set the stage for a historic rally above $126,000.
BTC has spent weeks oscillating within a narrow band, echoing the choppy price action observed early last year. Since Nov. 21, bitcoin has traded between roughly $80,000 and $95,000, approaching the 50th day confined to this nearly 20% range. That timeframe closely mirrors the consolidation phase from late February to early April 2025, when prices moved sideways between $76,000 and $85,000.
That earlier consolidation lasted 52 days before giving way to a renewed advance, culminating in a peak above $126,000 in October. Traders often describe such extended periods of sideways movement as “time-based capitulation,” where prolonged, uneventful price action pushes impatient participants out of the market.
Time-based capitulations have become more common as bitcoin has matured into a larger, more liquid asset, reducing the need for the deep drawdowns seen in earlier cycles. As a result, the broader uptrend that began in 2023 has taken on a stair-step pattern, characterized by sharp advances, corrective pullbacks and lengthy consolidations before the next leg higher.
Looking ahead, macroeconomic conditions may provide a supportive backdrop. In traditional markets, the so-called economic re-acceleration trade has gained traction, underpinned by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which currently estimates real GDP growth of 5.4% for the fourth quarter. While policy easing may pause in the near term, the Federal Reserve is still widely expected to cut interest rates by a cumulative 50 basis points in 2026.
Liquidity expectations have also been reinforced by political developments. President Donald Trump said Thursday that he is urging the purchase of up to $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, a move that has strengthened expectations for continued policy support. Former Pimco CEO Mohamed El-Erian noted that political pressure on the Federal Reserve could extend beyond rate cuts to include targeted asset purchases aimed at easing housing affordability concerns.
Trump’s comments, El-Erian added, highlight mounting public anxiety around affordability issues, which could ultimately prompt a more aggressive policy response.
Taken together, the similarities in price structure and a potentially supportive macro backdrop suggest that bitcoin’s current consolidation could resolve higher, echoing the breakout that followed a similar range last April.
