Bitcoin and Ether continue to trade sideways within a range that has held for nearly two months, as rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions tied to Iran keep overall market sentiment subdued. Meanwhile, select pockets of the altcoin market—particularly AI and privacy tokens—are showing relative strength.
Bitcoin is hovering near $69,000, while Ether trades around $2,130, both stuck within a consolidation band in place since Feb. 6. Over that period, Bitcoin has repeatedly faced resistance between $72,000 and $75,000, with support forming in the $62,000 to $65,000 range.
The current structure resembles the November-to-January consolidation phase that ultimately resolved lower, prompting some analysts to warn of a similar outcome.
Macro factors remain central. Tensions surrounding Iran continue to linger despite aggressive rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump, while Brent crude holds near $107 per barrel. Elevated energy prices risk feeding into inflation if sustained, adding another layer of uncertainty for risk assets.
Derivatives positioning
Market positioning reflects a lack of conviction. Bitcoin open interest is steady at $16.7 billion, largely unchanged week over week, suggesting speculative activity has stalled.
Funding rates have normalized to a neutral 0%–6% range after a period of negative readings that helped drive a short-covering rally. The three-month annualized basis has also remained flat, reinforcing the view that institutional players are not yet positioning for a decisive move.
In options markets, sentiment is stabilizing. Call participation has risen to 47%, while one-week skew has narrowed to 16% from 19%. However, front-end implied volatility remains in backwardation, indicating continued demand for short-term downside protection.
CoinGlass data shows $163 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with longs accounting for the majority. Bitcoin saw $64 million in liquidations, followed by Ether at $35 million. Binance liquidation heatmaps highlight $69,500 as a key level to watch if prices move higher.
Altcoin divergence
While major assets remain range-bound, parts of the altcoin market have shown resilience. Privacy tokens such as Zcash (ZEC) and Dash (DASH) have posted solid gains, alongside strength in AI-linked tokens and names like FET, PUMP, and RENDER.
The CoinDesk 20 index rose 0.3% on Tuesday but underperformed both the CoinDesk Memecoin Index and the CoinDesk Computing Select Index, underscoring the relative outperformance of niche segments.
However, the recovery is far from broad-based. AI and privacy tokens, along with select assets like HYPE and ALGO, have held up relatively well, while other areas continue to decline. Over the past 90 days, Ethena (ENA) has dropped 66%, with TIA, LDO, SUI, and ARB each down more than 50%.
This growing dispersion marks a departure from earlier cycles, when altcoins tended to move in sync. The current market appears more selective, with performance increasingly tied to underlying use cases rather than broad speculative flows.
