Bitcoin Holds the Line in First Half of 2025 as Altcoins Drag Behind
The first half of 2025 closed with the crypto market treading water overall—but only thanks to bitcoin’s steady performance. While BTC posted moderate gains, major altcoins like Ethereum and Solana struggled, and the broader market showed clear signs of fatigue.
Despite macroeconomic headwinds—including U.S.–China tariff tensions, global recession concerns, Middle East instability, and renewed political volatility as Donald Trump eyes a return to the presidency—the total crypto market cap grew just 3% over six months, landing at $3.27 trillion, according to TradingView.
But that modest headline growth masks a deep divide in performance across digital assets.
Bitcoin Leads, Altcoins Lag
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed 13% through the first half of the year, continuing to act as the market’s anchor amid broader turbulence. However, Ethereum (ETH) slid 25%, and Solana (SOL) dropped nearly 17%, showing that not all digital assets were able to ride bitcoin’s coattails.
Riskier altcoins took an even harder hit. The TradingView OTHERS index—which tracks all cryptocurrencies outside the top 10 by market cap—fell 30%, reflecting a widespread pullback in speculative appetite.
H2 Outlook: Will History Repeat?
Despite a shaky first half, some market watchers see potential for a stronger second act. Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, pointed to seasonality as a reason for optimism.
“We’re entering a period that has traditionally delivered strong returns,” Kruger said, noting that July has averaged a 7.56% gain for crypto markets since 2013. “The broader setup still looks constructive going into the back half of the year.”
Kruger also highlighted growing corporate interest in accumulating crypto beyond just bitcoin, with several companies hinting at building exposure to ETH and other digital assets.
Coinbase analysts echoed the positive tone, suggesting that a more supportive macro environment—including potential Fed rate cuts and growing regulatory clarity in the U.S.—could unlock stronger momentum for crypto markets in H2.
Still, not everyone is convinced. Bitfinex analysts took a more cautious view, noting that Q3 has historically been bitcoin’s weakest quarter, with an average gain of only 6% since 2013.
“We’re entering a seasonally slower stretch with lower volatility,” Bitfinex said in a recent report. “That suggests sideways price action could dominate for a while longer.”
A Market at a Crossroads
As the second half of 2025 begins, crypto investors face a divided landscape. Bitcoin remains firm, but altcoins continue to struggle. The big question now: Will macro tailwinds and historical seasonality be enough to reignite a broader rally—or will the market remain anchored in uncertainty?
