The four-year cycle in bitcoin refers to the recurring pattern in the cryptocurrency’s price behavior, historically aligned with the halving schedule. In past cycles, periods of strong appreciation are followed by major corrections, typically unfolding over roughly four years from peak to peak.
Some analysts argue the four-year cycle may not persist into 2026. U.S.-listed bitcoin ETFs have absorbed $57 billion in inflows, Strategy (MSTR) has acted as a near-perpetual buyer, and early holders distributed bitcoin at unprecedented levels above $100,000. Additionally, 2025 ended as a down year, despite the four-year cycle historically suggesting a parabolic peak.
Yet the counterargument is compelling: the cycle has so far remained intact. Bitcoin peaked roughly 18 months after the April 2024 halving, which cut the block subsidy to miners in half, reducing new issuance. By October 2025, bitcoin reached $126,000, following a substantial rally from the cycle low of $15,500 after the FTX collapse in November 2022.
Timing adds another layer of intrigue. Bitcoin’s local bottom on Nov. 21, 2025, at $80,524, coincided almost exactly with the previous cycle low on Nov. 21, 2022, at $15,460. January has also played a notable role in recent cycles: in January 2023, bitcoin topped just below $25,000 before falling under $20,000 during the Silicon Valley Bank collapse; January 2024 saw the launch of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs and a subsequent local low just below $40,000; January 2025 coincided with President Donald Trump’s inauguration and another local top near $110,000.
Now, all eyes turn to January 2026. A U.S. crypto market structure bill is scheduled for a markup hearing on Jan. 15, raising the question of whether this moment will mark another meaningful inflection point — potentially signaling a bottom or a top in the current bitcoin cycle.
