U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs are on pace to face their second-largest monthly outflow, with more than $800 million expected to be withdrawn by the end of April. This follows a difficult start to the year, as Bitcoin ETFs saw a record outflow of $3.56 billion in February, followed by $767 million in March.
Despite calls from some crypto advocates to “sell bonds, buy Bitcoin” due to tariff volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, institutions are largely ignoring this narrative. The traditional view that bonds offer stability in uncertain times appears to be prevailing as institutional investors remain focused on safer assets.
On Monday, the U.S. Treasury auctioned $80 billion in three-month bills at an interest rate of 4.225%, up slightly from the previous rate of 4.175%. In addition, $68 billion in six-month bills were sold at 4.06%, slightly higher than the 4.00% from the last auction.
The bid-to-cover ratios for these Treasury bills were strong, with the three-month bills seeing a ratio of 2.96, indicating nearly three bids for every bill offered. The six-month bills also saw a modest increase in demand, with the bid-to-cover ratio rising to 2.90 from 2.79.
These numbers point to continued institutional confidence in U.S. debt as a low-risk, high-liquidity investment. Treasury bills are particularly favored in the repo market, where institutions use short-term government securities as collateral for funding.
This shift toward bonds reflects broader economic concerns. With President Trump’s ongoing trade tensions escalating market volatility, corporate earnings guidance has become increasingly uncertain. Bank of America’s 3-month guidance ratio has fallen to 0.4x, signaling a lack of clarity from companies on future earnings prospects.
At the same time, recession fears are mounting, with platforms like PredictIt assigning a greater than 50% chance to a U.S. recession. Rising bond yields in Japan are also adding to the pressure on risk assets, further dampening institutional interest in Bitcoin.
