Crypto markets held their ground on Tuesday as traders shifted focus to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, where a 25-basis-point rate cut is broadly anticipated. With the move largely priced in, sentiment across digital assets has remained constructive, reinforcing expectations that easier policy should benefit risk assets like bitcoin.
Bitcoin was recently changing hands near $92,300, up 2.3% over the past 24 hours. Ether extended its outperformance with a 7% rally. Still, traders are preparing for choppier action. Fed days tend to produce outsized swings, and a widely expected cut can still produce a “sell-the-news” pullback if participants believe near-term upside has run its course, potentially squeezing late buyers.
For now, BTC remains locked in a weeklong range between $88,000 and $94,500. A decisive move beyond either level is expected to dictate the next leg of momentum.
Derivatives positioning
- Volmex’s one-day implied volatility gauge for bitcoin jumped to 67% from 20%, pointing to an expected 3.5% daily move—elevated but not indicative of an unusually disruptive Fed outcome.
- Implied moves for ether sit near 4.6%, while solana and XRP are both priced for roughly 5% swings.
- BTC’s options term structure shows a mild inversion, with near-dated volatility richer than longer maturities. A low-impact Fed decision could see the curve quickly flatten.
- On Deribit, BTC and ETH puts continue to trade above calls. Recent block trades featured ETH straddles and strangles—classic volatility expressions—while BTC flows leaned into risk-reversal setups.
- Futures open interest continues to rise across major assets. ETH OI climbed 8% to 12.4 million ETH, its highest level since Dec. 2. Cardano’s OI briefly hit 1.80 billion ADA before easing to 1.71 billion.
- Funding rates for BCH, XMR and WLFI are sharply negative, signaling aggressive short-side positioning.
- On the CME, ether futures OI has returned above 2 million ETH, while bitcoin futures participation remains stuck near multi-month lows.
Token talk
Ether remains the outlier in an otherwise sluggish altcoin landscape, supported by renewed attention after last week’s Fusaka upgrade. Broader appetite for smaller tokens remains muted, with CoinMarketCap’s altcoin-season index registering 16/100—a fresh cycle low and far below September’s reading of 78/100.
Among notable movers, HYPE has dropped 15% over the past week, while STRK, KAS and APT have all posted double-digit declines. AI-themed token FET has been a relative bright spot, gaining 9.3% in the past day as it attempts to rebound from a prolonged slide. Its broader trend remains weak, however, with the token down 1.6% on the week and more than 80% year-to-date.
