Global financial markets are showing signs of mounting stress as geopolitical tensions escalate and oil prices surge past $100 per barrel. Despite the broader turbulence, Bitcoin has remained relatively stable so far.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading around $67,378 on Monday morning, up roughly 1.1% over the past 24 hours and largely unchanged over the past week, even as traditional markets have come under pressure.
Among other major digital assets, Ether gained 2.3% to $1,981, hovering just shy of the $2,000 mark. BNB rose 1.4% to $624, while Dogecoin climbed 1.8% to around $0.09. Solana also added 1.8%, trading near $83.69, though it remains down about 1.5% over the past week, making it the weakest performer among major tokens during that period. XRP was little changed at $1.35 and is down roughly 1% over the past seven days.
Meanwhile, traditional markets have been reacting more sharply to the evolving macro backdrop. Futures tied to the S&P 500 dropped more than 2% during Asian trading hours, while the CBOE Volatility Index climbed to its highest level since the tariff-related market turmoil seen in April. At the same time, the U.S. dollar posted its strongest weekly gain in about a year.
Against this backdrop, veteran market strategist Ed Yardeni increased his estimate for the likelihood of a U.S. stock market meltdown this year to 35%, up from a previous forecast of 20%. He also lowered the probability of a market “melt-up” to just 5%.
“The U.S. economy and stock market are stuck between Iran and a hard place,” Yardeni wrote, warning that a sustained oil shock could leave policymakers facing a difficult trade-off between rising inflation and increasing unemployment.
Historically, severe risk-off periods tend to weigh on volatile assets across the board as investors shift capital into safer options such as cash, government bonds, or the U.S. dollar. Despite its reputation as a hedge, bitcoin has often declined alongside equities during major market stress events since 2020.
However, analysts note that bitcoin’s correlation with stocks may be overstated. In a recent research note, Greg Cipolaro explained that the cryptocurrency’s recent tendency to move alongside U.S. software stocks likely reflects exposure to the same macroeconomic environment rather than a structural relationship.
Cipolaro estimates that only about 25% of bitcoin’s price movements can be explained by its correlation with equities, with the remaining 75% driven by factors unique to the crypto market.
The broader outlook for global equities remains weak. A worldwide stock gauge tracked by MSCI fell 3.7% last week, with Asian markets experiencing the sharpest losses. South Korea’s stock market is still recovering from a record two-day decline, while hedge funds have increased short positions in U.S. equity ETFs. At the same time, yields on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose six basis points as traders priced in inflation risks tied to higher oil prices.
While U.S. equities have held up somewhat better than those in other regions—thanks in part to the country’s relative energy independence—the S&P 500 still declined about 2% last week.
The drop of more than 2% in stock futures early Monday suggests that the market’s resilience may be starting to weaken.
