Bitcoin drifts lower as on-chain data signals weakening demand
On-chain metrics show shrinking demand and tighter liquidity, while prediction markets suggest traders don’t expect near-term rate cuts.
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Bitcoin opened the Asian session flashing bear-market signals, hovering in the mid-$70,000s as global equities struggle for direction.
CryptoQuant’s latest report frames the weakness as structural rather than cyclical. Its Bull Score Index sits at zero, and Bitcoin trades far below its October peak. The market is no longer digesting gains but operating with a thinner buyer base and tightening liquidity.
Glassnode data reinforces this, showing weak spot volumes and a demand vacuum where selling isn’t being absorbed—suggesting fading participation rather than panic.
Institutional flows underline the trend. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, net buyers a year ago, are now net sellers, creating a year-over-year demand gap of tens of thousands of Bitcoin. The Coinbase premium has remained negative since October, signaling subdued U.S. investor interest. Historically, strong U.S. spot demand has powered bull runs—currently, that engine is idle.
Liquidity conditions are tightening. Stablecoin expansion, which usually fuels risk appetite, has stalled, with USDT market cap growth turning negative for the first time since 2023. Long-term demand growth has also collapsed from last year’s highs, showing that participation—not just leverage—is waning. Bitcoin remains below its 365-day moving average, with major support clustered between $60,000 and $70,000.
Macro conditions add pressure. Bitcoin is increasingly trading like high-beta software rather than digital gold. Prediction markets see the Fed holding rates in April, with only modest bets on a June cut, limiting near-term liquidity relief.
Politics adds complexity. President Trump recently told NBC that a Fed chair wanting to raise rates “would not have gotten the job,” dampening earlier hopes for central bank independence.
In Asia, markets are defined less by shocks than by absence, with occasional bounces possible but conviction remaining thin.
Market Moves
- BTC: Drifted to the mid-$70,000s, with rebounds fading amid thin spot demand and pressured tech stocks.
- ETH: Hovered above the low $2,000s, struggling to gain momentum as risk sentiment softened.
- Gold: Rebounded toward $5,000–$5,100 on safe-haven buying amid U.S.–Iran tensions and weaker payroll data, while Fed expectations were reassessed.
- Nikkei 225: Fell roughly 0.3%, with chip and tech leaders following Wall Street, though broader Japanese equities held relatively firm versus regional peers.
