Bitcoin’s On-Chain Data Reveals Stress for Short-Term Holders, While Long-Term Investors Keep Accumulating
Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics are flashing warning signs for short-term holders, as the short-term holder (STH) MVRV ratio drops to 0.82—historically a signal of market stress and potential capitulation, according to Glassnode’s latest data.
The STH MVRV ratio compares the market price of Bitcoin to the average cost of coins held by short-term holders. When the ratio falls below 1.0, it means that these holders are, on average, holding coins at a loss. With the current ratio at 0.82, short-term holders are down approximately 18%, highlighting the pain many investors are feeling at this point.
This current level mirrors previous MVRV lows, such as 0.84 in August 2024 and 0.77 in November 2022, both of which were followed by market bottoms and trend reversals.
These deep MVRV pullbacks are often a sign of capitulation, where weaker hands are forced to sell, and long-term investors step in to buy at lower prices. Since February, long-term holders—those who have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days—have accumulated about 500,000 BTC, according to Glassnode data.
Meanwhile, short-term holders have sold off more than 300,000 BTC, driven by a combination of profit-taking and capitulation. This shift in supply suggests that long-term investors are absorbing more Bitcoin than short-term holders are parting with, indicating that the market may be moving toward a period of stronger hands controlling the majority of the supply.
