Bitcoin’s Sideways Grind Sets Stage for Major Breakout
Bitcoin (BTC) has been stuck in one of its tightest trading ranges in years, fluctuating between $91,000 and $109,000 since late November. This extended period of low volatility is fueling speculation that a sharp breakout could be imminent.
Glassnode data reveals that Bitcoin’s two-week realized volatility has dropped to an annualized 32%, marking one of its lowest readings in recent years. Similarly, one-month implied volatility in the options market has dipped below 50%, reflecting traders’ uncertainty about BTC’s next big move.
Market analyst Checkmate’s “Choppiness Index” further underscores the unusual stability, showing that Bitcoin’s current range-bound behavior is the most extreme since 2015. Historically, such extended consolidation phases have been precursors to significant price swings.
With volatility historically mean-reverting, Bitcoin’s current compression could lead to an explosive move in either direction. The question is no longer if BTC will break out—but when and in which direction.
