Bitcoin’s 36% Surge in November: Approaching $100,000 and Eyeing New Heights
Bitcoin’s performance in November has been nothing short of remarkable, with the cryptocurrency climbing over 36% this month, placing it among the top-performing months since 2021. This surge has brought Bitcoin to within striking distance of the psychological $100,000 mark, a threshold that many traders and analysts expect it to surpass soon. With the month almost over, Bitcoin is set to finish November as one of its best months in years, sparking speculation that further gains are ahead.
November’s Impressive Growth: The Fourth-Best Month Since 2021
Currently up by 36%, Bitcoin’s November performance is only beaten by three other months since October 2021: February 2024 (44%), January 2023 (40%), and October 2021 (40%). Bitcoin’s remarkable rise this month, coupled with the $9 billion in options expiry, helped push its price up, briefly touching $96,000, just under 4% away from the $100,000 mark. This performance has many anticipating a potential breakout to new all-time highs, with December still to come.
Bitcoin’s Performance in Context: Quarter Gains and the Path Ahead
On a quarterly basis, Bitcoin has surged 51% since the beginning of Q4 2024, with December typically showing an average return of around 5%. This places Bitcoin on track to make Q4 2024 one of its best-performing quarters in recent history, following the record 69% increase in Q1 2024. The combination of quarterly performance and monthly gains puts Bitcoin in a favorable position to hit new all-time highs, especially if the momentum continues into December.
Analysts Predict Further Upside for Bitcoin
Despite already seeing substantial growth, many analysts believe Bitcoin’s rally still has room to run. Caleb Franzen, an analyst at a prominent research firm, suggests that Bitcoin is not yet in an overbought condition. He points out that Bitcoin’s current Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 75 remains below the typical peak levels of 90 seen during previous bull markets. This suggests that the market is not yet overheated and that Bitcoin could continue its upward trend for months to come.
A Parallell to Q4 2020: Bitcoin’s Market Structure
Bitcoin’s price action in late 2024 closely mirrors its performance in Q4 2020, when the cryptocurrency saw strong growth in October and November, followed by a minor correction during Thanksgiving. In that year, Bitcoin broke through the critical $10,000 level and soared to $60,000 by April 2021. This historical pattern, along with current market dynamics, suggests that Bitcoin could be positioning itself for another major rally.
The Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STHRP) Supports a Bullish Outlook
Data from Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin is trading well above its Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STHRP), a key indicator that typically signals a bull market. In 2020, Bitcoin used this level as a support point while continuing its ascent. If Bitcoin continues to hold above the STHRP, it could be a strong signal for further upward movement, following a similar path to Q4 2020 when Bitcoin saw consistent gains.
Growing Divergence: New Investors Entering the Market
Another key observation is the growing divergence between the realized price and the Long-Term Holder Realized Price (LTHRP). This suggests that new investors are entering the market, while long-term holders are increasingly realizing profits. As more new participants enter, Bitcoin’s bullish momentum could strengthen, further driving its price higher.
Could Bitcoin Hit $100,000 by November 29?
Interestingly, historical data suggests that Bitcoin could even reach $100,000 on November 29. On November 27, 2013, Bitcoin first crossed the $1,000 mark, and just four years later, it hit $10,000. With a similar trajectory in mind, it is possible that Bitcoin could break through the $100,000 barrier seven years after hitting $10,000, with analysts pointing to increased institutional interest and growing market optimism as contributing factors.
Conclusion: Bitcoin’s Path to $100,000
As Bitcoin continues to climb and approaches the $100,000 mark, the momentum behind it shows no signs of slowing down. With November shaping up to be one of its strongest months in years, Bitcoin is on track to break its previous record highs. Analysts remain optimistic that the cryptocurrency will continue to rise, with more upside potential in the coming months. The road to $100,000 is looking increasingly clear, and as Bitcoin consolidates its gains, a historic price breakout could be on the horizon.
