Bitcoin Approaches “Buy Zone,” but True Bottom Remains Unconfirmed
Bitcoin is trading near $67,500, tempting buyers, yet on-chain data suggests the market hasn’t hit the conditions that historically signal a cycle bottom.
CryptoQuant shows bitcoin’s realized price—the average cost basis of all coins weighted by their last transaction—at $54,286, compared with a spot price of $68,774. The 21% premium indicates most holders are still in profit. By contrast, in the 2022 bear market and the early 2020 COVID crash, spot dipped below realized, creating classic accumulation zones where the network was largely underwater. For bitcoin to reach realized today, it would require a roughly 20% decline to $54,000.
The spot-realized gap has compressed rapidly, from 120% in late 2024 to 21% in just 15 months, one of the fastest approaches outside outright crashes. CryptoQuant analyst Oinonen described the current level as an “accumulation zone,” though historically such zones required spot at or below realized.
Additional caution comes from the Coinbase Premium Index, now negative, signaling weaker institutional demand.
Still, bitcoin has held the $65,000–$70,000 range amid geopolitical tensions, and March ETF inflows of over $1 billion show active buying. Yet the on-chain evidence suggests the broad capitulation typically marking a cycle bottom has not occurred.
