Brazil’s B3 exchange is moving into the prediction-style derivatives space with a new set of contracts that let investors trade on the likelihood of future market outcomes.
Starting April 27, B3 will introduce six “Event Contracts” linked to bitcoin, the U.S. dollar, and the Ibovespa index. Similar to platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, these contracts are priced up to 100 reais (about $19), with each price representing the market’s implied probability of a specific event.
The products will be regulated by Brazil’s securities authority, the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), and are restricted to professional investors. Participation is limited to those with at least 10 million reais ($1.9 million) in assets or those holding CVM certification.
The initial offering includes contracts tied to both spot and mini futures price movements. As with other event-based instruments, they feature fixed payouts and clearly defined risks, with all trades settled in cash rather than through delivery of the underlying asset.
Luiz Masagão, B3’s Vice President of Products and Clients, said the launch is part of a broader effort to modernize Brazil’s derivatives market. He added that the exchange has already introduced contracts linked to central bank decisions and has been closely tracking the growth of prediction markets globally.
At the same time, B3 is expanding its digital asset ambitions. The exchange revealed last year that it is developing a tokenization platform and a stablecoin, both expected to launch later this year.
The rollout marks Brazil’s first federally regulated entry into the prediction market space, which has largely operated in a regulatory gray area. Local platforms such as Prévias and Palpitada are already active, while U.S.-based Kalshi has partnered with XP International, one of Brazil’s largest brokerages, to offer contracts tied to Brazilian economic outcomes.
Globally, prediction markets are seeing rapid growth, with total notional volume approaching $160 billion and more than 3 million users, according to Dune Analytics. Polymarket and Kalshi dominate the sector, accounting for most of the trading activity.
Traditional financial firms are also stepping in. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has increased its investment in Polymarket, bringing its total commitment to nearly $2 billion.
However, regulatory clarity remains unresolved. In Brazil, it is still unclear whether oversight of prediction markets will ultimately fall under the CVM, the Central Bank, or the Ministry of Finance, highlighting ongoing uncertainty around how the sector will be governed.
