Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a 7.6% pullback since nearly reaching the $100,000 mark on November 22, marking the largest decline since the rally ignited by Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory. This rally saw Bitcoin rise from approximately $66,000 to its current record highs. While this drop may seem significant, it’s in line with typical behavior in bull markets, where Bitcoin frequently sees corrections of 20% to 30% to liquidate excess leverage from an overheated market.
One of the key drivers behind this retreat is the profit-taking seen as Bitcoin approached the $100,000 milestone. On November 21, investors realized a record $10.5 billion in profits, according to Glassnode data, the largest single-day profit-taking event in Bitcoin’s history. This has been driven by long-term holders (LTHs) — individuals who have held their Bitcoin for more than 155 days and are considered “smart money” for their ability to buy during downturns and sell during bullish periods of greed.
Since September, these long-term holders have offloaded 549,119 BTC, or about 3.85% of their total holdings. Their sales have exceeded the buying activity from large institutional players such as MicroStrategy and U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs.
Looking at past bull markets, there’s a clear pattern emerging where the percentage drops become smaller with each cycle. In 2017, Bitcoin saw a 25.3% correction, in 2021 it was a 13.4% drop, and earlier this year, it was 6.51%. Currently, the drop sits at 3.85%. If this trend holds, it would suggest a further correction of just 1.19%, or around 163,031 BTC, bringing the long-term holders’ remaining supply to 13.54 million BTC.
This pattern of progressively smaller corrections and higher lows for long-term holders’ supply aligns with the overall strength of the market, suggesting that while selling pressure may persist in the short term, Bitcoin’s long-term growth trajectory remains intact.
