Bitcoin is starting to regain ground against gold, with the BTC-to-gold ratio climbing back toward 16 ounces after a sharp decline earlier in the cycle.
With just over a week remaining in March, bitcoin is narrowly positioned to avoid a historic losing streak. The asset is up about 2% on the month, holding above $68,000. However, a late pullback could still result in six consecutive monthly losses—matching the longest streak of declines seen between August 2018 and January 2019.
Key level continues to hold
From a technical perspective, the 200-week moving average (200WMA) remains a critical support level. This long-term indicator, based on the average closing price over the past 200 weeks, has historically acted as a floor during bear markets.
In this cycle, the 200WMA sits near $59,000. Bitcoin briefly dipped to around $60,000 in early February but has since remained above that level for nearly two months, reinforcing the strength of this support zone. The 2022 bear market remains the only period where BTC traded below the 200WMA for an extended duration.
Relative strength vs. gold
Beyond its USD price, bitcoin is also showing signs of relative strength against Gold. The BTC-to-gold ratio is on track to post its first monthly gain in eight months, currently hovering around 16 ounces.
Gold is trading near $4,200 after recently slipping toward $4,000, marking a roughly 5% daily decline. The metal is now down more than 25% from its January all-time high, erasing an estimated $7.5 trillion in market value.
Historically, each cycle has seen smaller peak-to-trough declines in the bitcoin-to-gold ratio. In the current cycle, BTC has fallen about 71% against gold from its December 2024 peak. These drawdowns have typically lasted around 400 days, suggesting the current phase may be nearing completion.
Uptrend still in place?
If bitcoin continues to hold above its 200-week moving average while strengthening against gold, it would support the case that the broader uptrend remains intact despite recent market volatility.
