Bloomberg Intelligence macro strategist Mike McGlone warned Monday that the ongoing slide in digital assets could be an early signal of broader financial strain, arguing that bitcoin may ultimately retreat toward $10,000 and potentially precede the next U.S. recession.
In a post on X, McGlone suggested the long-standing “buy the dip” mindset that has buoyed risk assets since the 2008 financial crisis may be fading as crypto markets weaken and volatility patterns begin to shift.
Bitcoin rebounded to $70,841 by 07:00 UTC on Feb. 15 from $65,395 late on Feb. 12, but was trading closer to $68,800 by mid-morning. The wider digital asset market also struggled, with 85 of the top 100 tokens in negative territory. Privacy coins monero and zcash fell 10% and 8%, respectively, over the past 24 hours.
“Healthy correction is what we should hear soon from stock market analysts (who risk unemployment if not onboard), following collapsing cryptos,” McGlone wrote, adding that the post-2008 dip-buying playbook may be nearing its end.
He highlighted several macro indicators he believes signal elevated risk. U.S. stock market capitalization relative to GDP has climbed to its highest level in roughly a century. At the same time, 180-day volatility in both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 sits near eight-year lows — a combination he views as potentially unstable.
McGlone also argued that what he calls the “crypto bubble” is deflating and that “Trump euphoria” has peaked, contributing to spillover effects across markets. Meanwhile, gold and silver are “grabbing alpha” at a pace not seen in about 50 years, with rising volatility that he says could eventually feed into equities.
Sharing a chart that scaled bitcoin by dividing its price by 10 and plotted it against the S&P 500, McGlone noted that both were trading below 7,000 on his framework as of Feb. 13. In his view, bitcoin — as a high-beta asset — is unlikely to hold those levels if equity beta deteriorates further.
He identified 5,600 on the S&P 500 — equivalent to roughly $56,000 for bitcoin under his scaling — as an initial “normal reversion” target. Beyond that, part of his base-case scenario envisions bitcoin sliding toward $10,000 if U.S. equities peak and roll over.
Divided views on the outlook
Not everyone agrees with McGlone’s assessment. Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam and a market analyst, told CoinDesk that the thesis assumes excesses must unwind through collapse and that bitcoin’s equity beta mechanically implies a similar crash.
“That’s false equivalence and single-path bias,” Fernandes said. “Markets can correct through time, sector rotation, or inflation erosion. A macro slowdown could result in consolidation or a reset to $40,000–$50,000 rather than a systemic breakdown to $10,000.”
Fernandes added that a drop to $10,000 would likely require a genuine systemic shock — including severe liquidity contraction, widening credit spreads, forced deleveraging and a disorderly equity sell-off.
“That would mean recession combined with financial stress, not just slower growth,” he said. “Without a credit event or major policy misstep that drains global liquidity, such a collapse remains a low-probability tail risk.”
