Bitcoin Stabilizes on ETF Inflows, but Market Momentum Remains Weak
Bitcoin has steadied as ETF inflows turn positive, yet weak on-chain activity, defensive derivatives positioning, and negative spot CVD indicate a market stabilizing without strong conviction for a sustained rally.
Market Overview
Asian crypto markets opened to calmer Bitcoin prices, but overall sentiment remains cautious. Selling has eased, yet momentum is limited. ETF flows, on-chain metrics, and derivatives data suggest a holding pattern rather than a decisive breakout.
U.S. ETF flows recorded a $56.5 million inflow on December 9, the first stabilization in weeks after over $1.1 billion in weekly redemptions during November, according to SoSoValue. Glassnode notes the recovery is real but shallow. Spot CVD remains deeply negative, derivatives positioning is defensive, on-chain activity is near cycle lows, and short-term holders continue to dominate supply, keeping the market sensitive to volatility.
Technical Signals
The 14-day RSI has returned to midrange, signaling a recovery from last week’s stretched conditions. Futures open interest has declined, volatility spreads remain discounted, and options skew shows traders are prioritizing downside protection over upside positioning. Active addresses and realized cap growth of just 0.7% suggest limited capital inflows, reflecting weak underlying demand.
Outlook
Bitcoin’s rebound reflects the absence of heavy selling rather than strong buying. Until ETF flows stay consistently positive and on-chain activity strengthens, the market is likely to drift. A clearer trend will require stronger participation from long-term holders and institutional allocators.
Market Snapshot
- BTC: Near $92,214 after a U.S. session reversal driven by spot demand.
- ETH: Around $3,296, extending a 6% daily gain on short covering and sentiment improvement.
- Gold: Above $4,200, supported by U.S. labor data and expectations of a Fed rate cut.
- Nikkei 225: Up 0.82% as investors await China’s inflation data and a likely 0.25% Fed rate cut.
