Bitcoin is heading for its strongest weekly performance since September 2025, climbing about 8.5% over the past seven days and trading above $71,000 as it begins to diverge from traditional markets.
The largest cryptocurrency has started to show signs of decoupling from broader risk assets. Using iShares Bitcoin Trust as a short-term proxy, the ETF has gained roughly 3.5% over the past five days and approached a one-month high by the end of the week.
Other major assets have moved in the opposite direction. The iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF, Gold and broader U.S. equities have all trended lower as the week progressed. The contrast suggests bitcoin’s previously strong correlation with technology and software stocks may be weakening, at least in the near term.
The divergence has become clearer since tensions in the Middle East escalated roughly two weeks ago. During that period, bitcoin has gained about 13%, outperforming both risk assets and traditional safe havens. Over the same timeframe, IGV has risen around 3%, while gold has declined roughly 6% and U.S. stocks have also recorded losses.
On a monthly basis, bitcoin is currently up about 7% in March. If the trend continues, it would mark the cryptocurrency’s first positive month since September. The rebound follows a difficult stretch that saw bitcoin decline for five consecutive months, at one point falling nearly 50% from its October all-time high.
Recent buying activity appears to be driven largely by U.S. investors, with institutional demand gradually returning to the market. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have recorded about $1.3 billion in net inflows so far this month, putting them on track for their first month of positive flows since October.
Despite the improved price performance, sentiment across the crypto market remains cautious.
The crypto Fear and Greed Index continues to sit in “extreme fear” territory, indicating that many investors remain hesitant even as prices rise. At the same time, funding rates in perpetual futures markets remain negative. These rates are periodic payments between traders designed to keep futures prices aligned with spot markets. Negative funding means short sellers are paying long positions, signaling that bearish bets still dominate and traders are willing to pay to maintain short exposure.
That dynamic suggests bitcoin may not yet be ready for a sustained breakout, even as prices recover.
However, the recent divergence from other assets hints at a shift in how bitcoin behaves during macro events. Rather than trading purely like a high-risk asset tied closely to technology stocks, bitcoin may increasingly function as a real-time indicator of global market sentiment.
Because it trades around the clock, bitcoin is often the first market to react when geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks occur. The escalation in the Middle East conflict illustrated this dynamic, with bitcoin adjusting immediately while traditional markets responded only after reopening. In recent sessions, those markets have begun to follow the earlier move, while bitcoin itself has remained relatively stable.
