Bitcoin remains largely range-bound, frustrating traders with directionless price action—but several indicators hint that a bullish breakout could be near.
Fed Impact Minimal
The Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut, accompanied by cautiously hawkish guidance, had little effect on BTC, which is trading around $90,244. The cryptocurrency remains trapped in a countertrend mini-rising channel within its broader downtrend from all-time highs.
For technical traders, the roadmap is clear: a break above the main bearish trendline would suggest the long-term downtrend has ended, while a drop below the ascending mini-channel could signal further losses.
Bullish Signals Emerging
Medium-to-long-term momentum indicators are leaning bullish. Bitcoin’s MACD histogram (50,100,9) is approaching a crossover above zero, a classic sign of renewed buying pressure. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has also weakened post-Fed, falling to 98.13—the lowest since mid-October—with its MACD turning negative, suggesting a weaker dollar that historically supports risk assets, including crypto.
The Nasdaq has regained footing after November’s decline, trading above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, adding support to risk markets. BTC sellers appear fatigued, with prices holding steady despite legislative hurdles in the U.S. Senate.
Key Levels and Risks
Resistance lies between $97,000 and $108,000, marked by the 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs and the Ichimoku Cloud. ETF inflows remain modest, with cumulative net inflows since late November at just $219 million—far below prior outflow levels. Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq is lopsided, rising only modestly on tech rallies but falling sharply during sell-offs.
The Bear Case
A breakdown below the mini ascending channel could expose support near $80,000, keeping risk in check. For now, Bitcoin is at a crossroads: poised for a potential breakout if bullish momentum holds, but vulnerable if sellers regain control.
