While the death cross is often viewed as a warning sign, every instance of it in the current cycle has actually coincided with bitcoin forming a major local bottom.
Bitcoin is approaching another potential death cross, with the 50-day moving average at $110,669 now nearing a crossover below the 200-day moving average at $110,459. In classical technical analysis, this pattern is considered bearish because it signals fading short-term momentum. But in this cycle, the signal has repeatedly functioned in the opposite way.
BTC has already shed about 25% since hitting its record high near $126,000 in October, extending a correction that has been underway for roughly 41 days. If the moving averages cross, it would mark the fourth death cross since 2023—and each one so far has aligned with a meaningful market low:
- September 2023: BTC bottomed around $25,000
- August 2024: Support formed near $49,000 during the yen carry trade unwind
- April 2025: A local low below $75,000 appeared amid tariff-policy uncertainty
In all of those cases, the price found its floor shortly before the death cross materialized. With bitcoin now trading near $94,000, traders are questioning whether that same dynamic may be setting up again.
The current decline is also milder than the one seen earlier this year. During the April downturn, bitcoin slid more than 30% from the January peak around $109,000 and spent nearly 80 days trending lower before stabilizing. The present 25% drawdown over 41 days leaves open the possibility that further weakness could still emerge.
A final variable is the recent end of the U.S. government shutdown on Nov. 12. The closest historical comparison—2019—saw bitcoin fall more than 9% within five days of the government reopening, with recovery taking roughly two weeks.
This time around, bitcoin has already fallen about 10% since the reopening, raising the question of whether the market is about to replay that pattern or diverge from it.
