Bitcoin (BTC) surged past $106,000, sparking trader optimism for a climb to $120,000 as the cryptocurrency enters the historically bullish month of December. Data from the past eight years shows Bitcoin finishing December in positive territory six times, with gains ranging from 8% to as much as 46%, notably in 2020’s record-setting year.
The latest rally has been powered by a combination of institutional inflows, regulatory optimism, and macroeconomic factors. High-profile acquisitions of Bitcoin by companies like MicroStrategy and Riot Platforms, alongside speculation about president-elect Donald Trump potentially building a federal Bitcoin reserve, have further boosted sentiment.
“Bitcoin’s price action this cycle is heavily influenced by traditional finance,” said Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA. “Institutional players are no longer on the sidelines — the demand for exposure to digital assets is growing, and the evolving regulatory climate adds confidence.”
Technical indicators show Bitcoin forming higher lows, signaling an ongoing uptrend. Analysts point to bullish continuation patterns, such as a developing flag formation, as further evidence that the next major price target could be well above $120,000.
The “Santa Claus Rally” effect — a phenomenon where December often brings outsized Bitcoin returns — is also in focus. Seasonality trends have consistently aligned with increased buying during the holiday season, driven by investor positioning and stronger institutional demand.
Some market participants believe the rally is just beginning. “We’re looking at a realistic path for Bitcoin to hit $125,000 by late 2025,” said Jeff Mei, COO at crypto exchange BTSE. “As institutions, high-net-worth individuals, and family offices increasingly allocate even a small portion of their portfolios to Bitcoin, inflows could surge.”
Mei emphasized that factors such as Trump’s pro-crypto sentiment, ongoing rate cuts, and economic stimulus in China could further support Bitcoin’s growth trajectory. “This environment is setting the stage for another significant breakout,” he added.
