Bitcoin Still on Track for $140K in 2025, But 2026 May Bring Pain, Says Elliott Wave Analyst
Bitcoin (BTC) remains positioned to reach as high as $140,000 by the end of 2025, but a downturn could follow next year, according to Elliott Wave strategist John Glover, CIO at crypto financial firm Ledn.
Despite a 4% drop this past week and a temporary dip below $112,000, Glover says BTC is still following a classic Elliott Wave pattern, with the current pullback marking a temporary correction — not the end of the cycle.
“Bitcoin is nearing completion of wave iii of a larger five-wave structure, which targets $135,000 to $140,000 by year-end,” Glover wrote in a market update. He noted the price decline comes after weeks of profit-taking near the $120,000 level and volatility in crypto-linked stocks like MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Coinbase (COIN).
Understanding the Elliott Wave Setup
Elliott Wave Theory, developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s, analyzes market psychology through a repeating pattern of five impulse waves followed by a three-wave correction. Glover believes BTC is currently in wave iii of the final wave 5 — meaning two more movements remain: a correction (wave iv) and a final rally (wave v).
According to his projections, BTC could hit $130,000 in the coming weeks, pull back to around $110,000 in September, and then rise toward the $140,000 zone to complete the structure by late 2025.
A 2026 Reversal?
While some market participants are eyeing higher targets — including $250,000 or more — Glover remains cautious.
“Once we hit the $140,000 range, we’ll hear extreme bullish calls,” he said. “But my view is that we’ll enter a bear market in 2026.”
This forecast challenges the emerging belief that institutional flows, particularly via ETFs, may have ended bitcoin’s historic four-year boom-bust cycles. Glover argues that, despite new financial products and broader adoption, the cyclical structure still holds — and the next downturn is likely already forming on the horizon.
