Bitcoin is on pace for one of its weakest fourth-quarter performances outside of major bear markets, underscoring the fragile state of the crypto market despite a modest rebound.
According to CoinGlass, bitcoin is down more than 22% so far in Q4, an unusually poor showing for a period that has often produced some of the asset’s strongest rallies. The recent move back toward the $90,000 level has provided a short-term boost to sentiment, but analysts remain skeptical that it signals a meaningful turning point after one of the softest second halves in recent years.
Major cryptocurrencies have traded largely sideways over the past 24 hours. XRP, ether, Solana’s SOL, Cardano’s ADA and Dogecoin posted gains of up to 2%, while Aave’s AAVE continued to slide amid an ongoing governance dispute, making it the weakest performer with a roughly 7% decline.
Total crypto market capitalization has once again climbed above $3 trillion, a key psychological threshold that has acted as a battleground between buyers and sellers over the past month. While prices are higher on the day, analysts caution the move reflects technical exhaustion rather than renewed conviction.
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said the recent strength is largely technical, driven by a low base after weeks of selling pressure.
“The crypto market is making another attempt at growth, but this is not yet a recovery,” Kuptsikevich said. He added that sentiment has improved only slightly, with the fear and greed index rising to 25 — suggesting traders are moving away from extreme pessimism, but remain reluctant to take on risk.
Bitcoin was trading near $88,000 during Asian morning hours on Tuesday, testing the upper end of a range that has held since early last week. Kuptsikevich warned that short-term momentum could be misleading in the broader context. Bitcoin remains about 30% below its 2025 peak and is still trading below levels seen at the start of the year.
“Attempts to bring year-to-date performance back to flat are little consolation,” he said, adding that disappointment has replaced the optimism that dominated markets earlier this year.
Seasonal trends reinforce the cautious outlook. While the fourth quarter has historically delivered strong bitcoin rallies, it has also seen sharp drawdowns during periods of tightening liquidity and macro uncertainty. Recent trading suggests the market remains vulnerable to abrupt reversals, particularly during U.S. hours, when gains from Asian and European sessions have repeatedly faded as North American markets open.
