Bitcoin Rises as U.S. Economy Shows Weakness, Markets Anticipate Fed Cut
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed past $116,000 on Friday, up roughly 4% over the past week, as disappointing economic data fueled expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. While positive for crypto, the numbers highlight mounting concerns about inflation and labor market weakness.
August CPI came in slightly above expectations, signaling persistent price pressures. Earlier revisions showed nearly 1 million fewer jobs created in the year ending March than initially reported, the largest downward revision in U.S. history. The August jobs report added just 22,000 positions, with unemployment rising to 4.3% and initial claims hitting 263,000—the highest since October 2021.
Risk assets responded strongly. Bitcoin formed higher lows from its September bottom near $107,500, with the 200-day moving average at $102,083 and the Short-Term Holder Realized Price at a record $109,668. Equities also climbed, with the S&P 500 hitting consecutive record closes, while the 10-year Treasury yield briefly fell below 4%.
Bitcoin-linked stocks showed mixed results. Strategy (MSTR) remained flat at $326, below its 200-day moving average, while MARA (7%) and XXI (4%) outperformed.
CME FedWatch indicates a 25-basis-point cut is priced in for September, with three cuts expected by year-end—supporting renewed appetite for crypto, equities, and other risk assets.
