Semler Scientific Trades Near BTC NAV as Benchmark Sees 3x Upside
Semler Scientific (NASDAQ: SMLR) is trading just above the value of its bitcoin holdings, with a market net asset value (mNAV) of 1.04 — a disconnect that Benchmark says offers significant upside potential.
Following the company’s second-quarter earnings, Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer reaffirmed a Buy rating and a $101 price target, nearly three times the current price of around $35. He argues that investors are underestimating the company’s ability to scale its bitcoin exposure through low-risk leverage strategies.
“Markets are giving virtually no credit for Semler’s deliberate and flexible approach to increasing its bitcoin holdings,” Palmer wrote.
Unlike other bitcoin treasury firms that rely on aggressive equity dilution, Semler is pursuing a conservative accumulation plan. Its newly appointed Director of Bitcoin Strategy, Joe Burnett, has outlined a strategy to grow BTC reserves using operating cash flow, low-cost convertible debt, and targeted ATM equity issuances — all with the goal of enhancing shareholder value.
As of July 31, Semler held 5,021 BTC, purchased at a total cost of $475.8 million, now worth $586.2 million, yielding an unrealized gain of $110.4 million and a 31.3% return year-to-date on its BTC position.
To support its treasury strategy, Semler has issued $100 million in 4.25% convertible notes due 2030 and maintains room to issue additional long-term, BTC-backed debt.
Management has set aggressive targets: 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025, 42,000 by 2026, and 105,000 by 2027 — positioning itself as one of the most ambitious corporate bitcoin holders in the public markets.
Benchmark’s $101 target is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, combining the future value of the company’s BTC assets with its underlying healthcare business, including the scaling CardioVanta unit.
Despite the company’s capital flexibility and clearly articulated bitcoin roadmap, shares currently trade near BTC NAV, implying limited recognition of long-term upside. Benchmark expects that gap to close as Semler executes on its strategy.
