Bitcoin Implied Volatility Climbs to 2.5-Month High as Seasonal Trends Take Hold
Bitcoin (BTC, $118,200) implied volatility (IV) has surged to a 2.5-month high, reflecting recent price momentum and historical seasonal patterns pointing to a strong Q4.
Volmex’s Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index (BVIV), which tracks annualized expected price swings over four weeks, reached 42% — the highest since late August, according to TradingView. Rising IV signals that traders anticipate larger price moves ahead.
The increase comes alongside Bitcoin’s recent upswing, despite a pullback from record highs above $126,000 to around $120,000.
Seasonal Strength
October has historically been a volatile month. BVIV spikes were seen in both 2023 and 2024, and 2025 is showing similar dynamics, with IV expected to rise further in the second half of the month. Coinglass data shows Bitcoin averaging roughly 6% weekly gains in this period, while November typically delivers the strongest returns, often exceeding 45%.
Market Context
Since late last year, Bitcoin’s IV has often risen during price pullbacks, highlighting the classic inverse relationship between volatility and price. Long-term trends show a gradual decline in IV, reflecting Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset.
