Bitcoin Up 130% Since Last Year’s Yen Carry Trade Unwind as Long-Term Holders Accumulate
One year ago, global markets were rattled by the abrupt unwinding of the yen carry trade. As Japan shifted toward a more restrictive monetary policy and bond yields surged, the appeal of borrowing in yen to fund higher-yielding investments quickly faded.
The resulting risk-off move sent capital fleeing from speculative assets. Bitcoin dropped nearly 30%, falling to $49,000 — a level not seen since the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024.
Since that low, Bitcoin has staged a remarkable recovery, gaining over 130% in the past year. Broader markets have also performed strongly: the S&P 500 has risen 24%, and gold has climbed 40%, reflecting simultaneous demand for growth assets and defensive hedges.
The U.S. dollar, by contrast, has weakened. The Dollar Index (DXY) has declined from 103 to just below 100, as bond yields rose across the curve. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has increased to 4.2% from 3.7%, while the 30-year has jumped to 4.8% from 4.0%.
Similar moves were observed globally. The U.K.’s 30-year gilt yield has risen to 5.3% from 4.3%, and Japan’s 30-year yield has surged to over 3%, up from 1.9% — signaling a significant global shift in rate expectations.
Amid this macro volatility, Bitcoin’s long-term holders have continued to accumulate.
Glassnode’s HODL Waves, which track the age distribution of held Bitcoin, show a steady rise in long-duration holdings. Coins untouched for 7 to 10 years now account for over 8% of supply, up from 4% a year ago. Those held for 6 to 12 months have increased from 8% to 15%.
This suggests long-term investors remain confident, while newer participants have also entered the market during the recent rally. The share of supply held for less than 3 months has risen compared to 2024 levels, pointing to increased speculative interest — and potentially some buyers chasing momentum at higher price levels.
Despite periodic volatility, long-term conviction in Bitcoin appears to be strengthening, even as macro conditions evolve.
