K33 Analysts: Bitcoin’s Traditional 4-Year Cycle Losing Relevance as Market Matures
Bitcoin’s well-known four-year cycle, historically anchored to halving events, may be nearing the end of its dominance as the key driver of price action, according to a recent note from K33 Research.
The halving-linked cycle—marked by sharp rallies roughly a year after each event—has defined Bitcoin’s trajectory since inception. Past peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 aligned with a predictable 1,060-day rhythm from each major market low.
However, analysts at K33 argue that the maturing nature of Bitcoin’s market dynamics is now diluting that pattern.
“The halving’s influence continues to diminish as Bitcoin becomes more integrated with global financial markets,” the report said, adding that price movements are increasingly driven by macroeconomic conditions such as interest rates, liquidity, and institutional behavior.
As Bitcoin attracts greater institutional participation and becomes more correlated with traditional assets, its sensitivity to endogenous events—like halvings—is giving way to broader economic forces.
While K33 doesn’t entirely dismiss the relevance of the four-year cycle, it notes that the model is “losing predictive power” and recommends that traders begin to focus more on macro indicators rather than rigid historical frameworks.
