Bitcoin’s Potential Capitulation Zone: $65K, Says Analyst James Check, with Support at $50K
Where does Bitcoin (BTC) go from here?
While it’s possible that Bitcoin has already seen its bottom, on-chain analyst James Check believes the true market bottom might only come after a full capitulation event. According to Check, this would likely bring Bitcoin to around $65,000—what he calls the “true market mean” or the average cost basis for active investors.
At this price level, Check suggests many short-term holders would begin to feel the effects of unrealized losses. Even long-term Bitcoin holders, including those who have been invested for five years or more, could find themselves underwater at this point. This price level is notably close to the cost basis used by Michael Saylor’s investment strategy, which stands around $67,500.
Post-Capitulation Support Around $50K
While Check anticipates further declines if Bitcoin reaches the $65,000 mark, he sees strong long-term support in the $49,000-$50,000 range. These levels coincide with the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 and Bitcoin’s $1 trillion market cap milestone. A drop to $40,000, Check believes, is unlikely unless there’s a significant global economic downturn.
Check also pointed to the “chopsolidation” phase that occurred throughout 2024, during which Bitcoin traded within a wide range between $50K and $70K. He views this period as having established a solid foundation of support that should help buffer Bitcoin from sharp declines.
