Bitcoin Enters Thanksgiving Amid Extended Downtrend
Bitcoin BTC heads into Thanksgiving after a 35% drop from its October all-time high, marking its fifth straight weekly decline. Historically, the trading day before Thanksgiving is weak, with six of the past seven sessions finishing lower. In 2020 and 2021, BTC fell around 8%, reflecting thin liquidity and limited hedging ahead of the holiday.
Thanksgiving itself tends to be flat. Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged 1.5% gains, with only four negative sessions. The day after is slightly stronger, averaging 2.3% gains. On a weekly basis, Thanksgiving usually falls in week 47, which historically returns around 3%, while late-week 46 can see stronger gains exceeding 6%.
While Q4 is typically Bitcoin’s most bullish quarter, Q4 2025 is down 23%, with November alone falling over 20%, the worst month since June 2022. BTC remains in a seven-week drawdown from its $126,000 October high, and short-term volatility may increase ahead of options expiry.
Bitcoin is on track to finish below the 2024 Thanksgiving level of $95,380, a scenario seen in 2015, 2018, and 2022. Institutional players via spot ETFs and corporate treasuries now dominate, leaving retail traders more exposed. October’s record $19 billion in liquidations underscores the risks for individual investors, while liquidity has thinned on crypto exchanges, reflecting a market fundamentally reshaped by institutional participation.
