Bitcoin (BTC $88,536.75) long-term holder (LTH) supply has fallen to an eight-month low of 14,342,207 BTC, a level last seen in May, coinciding with nearly a 40% drop from October’s all-time high.
Glassnode defines LTHs as entities that have held bitcoin for at least 155 days, setting the current cohort cutoff around mid-July. Any buyer from that period who has held since qualifies as a long-term holder.
This decline marks the third major wave of LTH distribution in the ongoing cycle, which began in early 2023. The first wave occurred from late 2023 into early 2024, following the launch of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, as LTHs sold into strength while bitcoin climbed from roughly $25,000 to near $73,000 by March 2024.
The second wave emerged later in the year as bitcoin approached $100,000, fueled by optimism around former President Trump’s election victory. The current third wave has come even as bitcoin remained above $100,000 for much of the year.
A cycle unlike previous bull markets
Unlike earlier cycles in 2013, 2017, and 2021—where LTH supply typically followed a single boom-and-bust pattern—this cycle has seen multiple distribution waves without a clear blow-off top. Alec, co-founder of Checkonchain, noted that LTH activity this cycle is unprecedented, with the market absorbing the third wave of selling remarkably well.
LTH distribution remains one of bitcoin’s largest sources of sell-side pressure and has been a key factor behind the nearly 40% correction from October’s peak.
