$5 Billion in Bitcoin Options to Expire on Deribit Amid Market Volatility
This Friday at 08:00 UTC, approximately $5 billion worth of bitcoin (BTC) options contracts will expire on Deribit, potentially fueling further market fluctuations.
Bitcoin’s extended period of consolidation had kept Deribit’s volatility index (DVOL) on a downward trend throughout 2025. However, the recent sharp price drop caused DVOL to spike to 52 before stabilizing below 50, signaling a brief but intense surge in uncertainty.
BTC’s dip below $90,000 has left a majority of these expiring contracts out-of-the-money (OTM), meaning traders are sitting on significant unrealized losses.
Expiration Breakdown: Calls and Puts
Options contracts allow traders to buy or sell BTC at a predetermined price before expiration. Based on Deribit’s data:
- $3.9 billion (78%) of contracts are OTM, making them effectively worthless at expiration.
- Nearly all call options—bets on BTC moving higher—are OTM, as the recent selloff has pushed prices well below their strike levels.
- $1.1 billion (22%) remain in-the-money (ITM), mainly consisting of put options, which gain value when BTC’s price declines.
Max Pain: A Potential Price Magnet?
One key level traders are watching is $98,000, the max pain point—where option sellers (typically large institutions) would see the most profit while buyers take the biggest losses.
With BTC’s current price nearly $10,000 below this level, some analysts speculate that market makers could attempt to push prices higher to minimize losses.
“As we approach month-end, Bitcoin options traders should stay alert. The max pain level for Feb. 28 is $98,000, with an enormous $5 billion in notional value. This concentration of open interest could drive increased volatility and a potential price move toward this level,” PowerTrade noted on X.
With such a large expiration event ahead, traders will be watching closely to see if the max pain theory plays out—or if BTC continues its downward trajectory.
