Veteran trader Peter Brandt warns that bitcoin’s (BTC $87,454.37) parabolic growth curve has broken, potentially paving the way for a drop to $25,000.
Brandt’s analysis draws on bitcoin’s historical bull cycles, which typically last 12–18 months after a halving before entering bear markets with 70%–80% pullbacks from all-time highs.
Each cycle has produced smaller gains than the last. After the 2012 halving, BTC surged roughly 100-fold to $1,240. The 2016 halving brought a 74-fold rise, while the 2020 halving produced an eight-fold increase.
The current cycle, which began after the April 2024 halving, drove bitcoin to a record $126,000 by October. Since then, BTC has retreated to just under $90,000, slicing through the parabolic curve that has historically defined its major uptrends.
“The current parabolic advance has been violated. 20% of ATH = $25,240,” Brandt wrote on X.
On a log-scale chart dating back to 2010, Brandt highlights four steepening arcs tracing each cycle’s vertical climb. Historically, falling below these arcs has signaled the end of a bull run—the recent breach of the fourth arc may indicate a similar downturn is beginning.
