Bitcoin’s “Silent IPO”: Why the Market’s Lull May Signal Maturity, Not Weakness
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are thriving, institutional demand is climbing, and regulators are turning more favorable — yet Bitcoin continues to trade sideways while global markets surge to new highs.
It’s a frustrating paradox for many Bitcoin (BTC) investors. Stocks, tech names, and risk assets are hitting record after record, while BTC barely moves. But according to seasoned fund manager Jordi Visser, this stagnation might be exactly what’s supposed to happen.
In a widely shared essay on X titled “Bitcoin’s Silent IPO: Why This Consolidation Isn’t What You Think,” Visser compares Bitcoin’s current price behavior to what happens after a traditional stock market debut — an “IPO phase” of gradual distribution.
Bitcoin’s Post-IPO Phase
Bitcoin, of course, never had an official IPO. But Visser argues that the same market mechanics apply. After a successful IPO, early investors — founders, early employees, and venture funds — often begin selling portions of their holdings to lock in life-changing gains.
“Early-stage investors take enormous risks,” Visser wrote. “If the investment succeeds, they deserve enormous rewards. But eventually, they need liquidity. They need an exit. They need to diversify.”
He cites the example of Facebook’s 2012 IPO. The company raised $16 billion at a $104 billion valuation — historic figures for the time. Yet within a year, its stock had fallen 30%. Not because the business was faltering, Visser notes, but because early backers were gradually selling their shares into the open market.
“They don’t sell all at once,” Visser explains. “They distribute slowly, so they don’t crash the price. It’s patient, methodical — a sideways grind that drives everyone crazy.”
Liquidity Has Finally Arrived
Bitcoin, he argues, is now in the middle of its own version of that process. For the first time, liquidity exists on a scale large enough to accommodate early holders who’ve been waiting years — even decades — to realize gains.
“The on-chain data tells the story,” Visser wrote. “Old coins, dormant since Bitcoin’s single-digit price days, are suddenly moving.”
That shift, he says, coincides with the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs, corporate balance-sheet adoption, and even sovereign-level participation — all of which have created deep institutional demand.
“In 2015, selling $100 million worth of Bitcoin would’ve cratered the price. Even in 2019, the market couldn’t handle a $1 billion sale,” Visser said. “Now, ETFs are providing consistent institutional bid, and liquidity is deep enough for early holders to exit gradually.”
Distribution Before Expansion
Visser doesn’t call this a bear market — he calls it a distribution phase: a period where ownership transitions from early believers to larger, long-term institutional hands.
Historically, such phases last between six and eighteen months in traditional markets. Even with crypto’s faster cycles, Visser warns that Bitcoin’s sideways pattern could persist for a while longer.
“Sentiment will only improve after the distribution is mostly complete,” he wrote. “Investors are frustrated because they don’t recognize what stage we’re in. They’re waiting for Bitcoin to ‘catch up’ to equities. But once the early selling pressure fades and institutional accumulation absorbs the old supply, the next trend becomes clearer.”
So while the price may feel stuck, Visser’s message is simple: Bitcoin isn’t broken — it’s maturing.
