Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Sees Sideways Bitcoin, Rising Institutional Interest, and a $6.5 Million Long-Term Target
After a turbulent 2025, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan expects bitcoin to trade in a measured, sideways range in the first half of 2026, while institutional interest grows and central banks begin to take notice.
Sideways Trading Ahead
Hougan anticipates bitcoin will fluctuate between roughly $75,000 and $100,000 in the coming months. “There’s still a lot of Bitcoin for sale around $100,000,” he noted, citing options-market positioning. He expects a more decisive breakout later in the year as regulatory clarity improves and macroeconomic risks are absorbed.
Precious Metals and Bitcoin’s Case
Gold’s recent rally underscores bitcoin’s long-term appeal. According to Hougan, the surge reflects global concerns over fiat currencies and the risk of asset seizure. Silver, by contrast, appears more like a late-stage momentum trade, similar to a speculative altcoin rally. Over time, he expects these dynamics to drive demand toward bitcoin as a superior form of self-custody and settlement.
Central Banks Are Watching
Bitwise has engaged with central banks in multiple regions, Hougan said, but most inquiries focus on bitcoin’s fundamental security and risk profile rather than technical implementation. He predicts central banks will eventually hold bitcoin—potentially more than gold—but that adoption is likely 10 to 20 years away.
The $6.5 Million Bitcoin Call
Hougan reiterated his long-term forecast that bitcoin could reach roughly $6.5 million per coin over the next two decades. This projection assumes continued global debt growth, money printing, and currency debasement rather than accelerated adoption. He emphasized bitcoin’s superiority to gold and said central banks are only beginning to appreciate its role. “As long as the future isn’t dramatically different from the last 15 years,” Hougan said, “we get there. It’s just a matter of time.”
Institutional Adoption and Volatility
Declining bitcoin volatility is crucial for institutional investors, Hougan explained. He often points out that bitcoin is now less volatile than Nvidia, a stock widely held by allocators. Bitwise expects volatility to continue falling while bitcoin remains the fastest-growing major financial asset.
Looking Ahead
Hougan believes regulatory clarity in Washington could accelerate the next bull phase, but isn’t required for crypto’s long-term trajectory. Even without it, ETFs, stablecoins, and tokenization are expected to keep expanding. “The fundamentals are really good,” he said. “The stars are aligned for a good 2026.”
