The chances of U.S. regulatory approval for spot crypto ETFs have surged, with nearly all filings now projected to succeed — except for one significant holdout: SUI.
Analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas from Bloomberg report that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appears increasingly receptive to approving a broad slate of spot crypto exchange-traded funds. These include products tied to XRP, Solana, Litecoin, Dogecoin, and Cardano.
“We are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher,” Seyffart shared on X. “Engagement from the SEC is a very positive sign in our opinion.”
This optimism stems from a wave of recent regulatory activity, including 19b-4 acknowledgments and S-1 amendment requests, which signal that the SEC is collaborating with issuers instead of stonewalling them.
However, SUI’s path remains less certain. Its ETF application, filed solely by Canary, carries only a 60% chance of approval, according to Bloomberg, due to the lack of regulated futures and broader regulatory uncertainty around the asset.
Crypto prediction markets mirror the analysts’ confidence. On Polymarket, traders assign a 98% probability that an XRP ETF will secure approval this year. Predictions for a Solana ETF stand at 91%, while a Dogecoin ETF is given a 71% chance of moving forward.
The shifting sentiment underscores the possibility that the U.S. could soon welcome a wave of altcoin ETFs — with SUI as the lone token still struggling to clear the regulatory hurdle.
