Bitcoin has held up relatively well against gold since the outbreak of conflict in Iran, but traders may be better off keeping “dry powder” as markets react to volatile headlines, according to Wintermute’s Bryan Tan.
BTC $70,700.76 edged toward $69,000 on Thursday as the Middle East conflict escalated, targeting energy infrastructure and sending ripples through global markets.
Oil remained at the center of attention, swinging back above $100 a barrel after a Politico report indicated the U.S. is not considering a crude export ban, reversing earlier declines and keeping inflation concerns alive.
Equities felt the strain. Investors began factoring in the possibility that central banks could delay rate cuts—or even raise rates—to counter energy-driven inflation pressures. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell nearly 1% in morning trading, hitting new 2026 lows.
Metals saw sharper moves. Gold dropped 5% to around $4,500 an ounce, its lowest since early February, while silver fell 6.6%, extending a steep correction following weeks of gains.
Crypto markets were steadier by comparison. Bitcoin hovered near $69,400, down about 2.6% on the day. Most major tokens—including ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), BNB $643.75 and solana (SOL)—posted losses under 3%, while the CoinDesk 20 Index slipped roughly 2.1%.
Crypto-linked equities also retreated but less sharply. Coinbase (COIN) fell 1.7%, bitcoin-focused MicroStrategy (MSTR) dropped 2.6%, and stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) retreated 6% after more than doubling over the past three weeks.
Bitcoin shows relative strength amid risk-off sentiment
The simultaneous decline in gold and bitcoin points to broad de-risking rather than a flight into safe havens, said Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet. Rising energy costs are boosting inflation expectations, supporting a “higher-for-longer” rate outlook and tighter liquidity—a challenging environment for risk assets.
Still, bitcoin has outperformed gold by roughly 20% since the Iran conflict began, Tan noted, a rare occurrence for an asset typically treated as high-risk. Yet, the inability to push above $75,000 underscores that markets remain cautious and rangebound.
“With sentiment swinging on every headline and bitcoin closely tied to oil, staying flat can be the safest approach,” Tan said. “We prefer holding dry powder until there’s a meaningful move or a material change in market conditions.”
