Bitcoin and ether posted modest gains on Monday, while altcoins led a sharper rebound driven by an oversold bounce. Still, weak liquidity and ongoing macro uncertainty continue to leave the broader trend vulnerable.
BTC rose about 2.1% to around $66,800, with ETH advancing 3.1%. Altcoins outperformed, as tokens such as Chiliz (CHZ), Fetch.ai (FET), and Optimism (OP) jumped more than 6%.
Despite the recovery, sentiment remains fragile. The Iran conflict has now entered its fifth week, and while Pakistan signaled openness to hosting peace talks, markets have shown little confidence in a near-term resolution. Brent crude climbed to $108 per barrel over the weekend, a sharp increase from pre-conflict levels in the low $70s, underscoring persistent geopolitical risk.
In traditional markets, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures both gained around 0.25%, while the dollar index (DXY) remained steady near 100.2.
Zooming out, crypto markets are still in a broader downtrend, defined by lower highs and lower lows since October. Bitcoin continues to trade within a range established in early February, failing to break above $75,000 or below $62,800.
Derivatives positioning
Futures data suggests limited conviction behind the latest bounce. Bitcoin open interest (OI) has stalled after reaching a near two-month high over the weekend, while near-zero funding rates and negative cumulative volume delta (CVD) point to a bias toward short positions.
Notably, OI declined during bitcoin’s rebound from around $65,000 in Asian trading, indicating the move was largely spot-driven rather than fueled by leveraged traders.
On Bitfinex, BTC/USD long positions have climbed to their highest level since November 2023 — a signal that has historically preceded price weakness.
Across major tokens like XRP, ETH, DOGE, and SOL, open interest has remained largely flat over the past 24 hours. Avalanche (AVAX) and Litecoin (LTC) stand out with double-digit increases in OI, although negative CVD readings suggest the inflows are largely tied to bearish positioning.
Volatility remains subdued. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility has dropped back toward 55% after briefly touching 58%, indicating relative calm despite geopolitical tensions. Ether’s volatility profile mirrors this trend.
Options markets also reflect caution. On Deribit, put options continue to trade at a premium to calls, signaling persistent demand for downside protection. Dealer positioning remains largely positive gamma between $65,000 and $70,000, encouraging buy-low, sell-high flows that reinforce rangebound trading.
Token trends
Market indices tracked the rebound, with the CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) and DeFi Select Index (DFX) leading gains, rising 2.8% and 2.2%, respectively. The broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) added 1.5%.
Altcoin strength appears tied to thin liquidity conditions. Friday’s sell-off pushed many assets into oversold territory as supply overwhelmed demand, exaggerating the decline and setting up the current relief rally.
This lack of liquidity has persisted since October, when a $19 billion liquidation event disrupted market structure and sidelined key participants.
For a more durable recovery, bitcoin likely needs to reclaim and consolidate above $80,000. A move of that magnitude could restore confidence and allow capital to rotate into altcoins, helping establish stronger support across the market.
