Bitcoin Awaits Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech as Traders Brace for Moderate Volatility
Bitcoin is poised for a measured response ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech Friday at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, with derivatives markets pricing in only modest turbulence.
According to Pulkit Goyal, head of trading at Orbit Markets, BTC options are implying roughly a ±2.0% move around Powell’s remarks — a relatively muted expectation given the event’s significance. “Markets aren’t bracing for a major shock, but some are positioning for a potential retracement,” Goyal told CoinDesk.
Volatility expectations have ticked higher. The one-day implied volatility index (BVIV1D) from Volmex rose to 49% annualized — its highest since May 26 — implying a 24-hour move of roughly 2.5%. That’s above Bitcoin’s 30-day average daily change of 1.18%, suggesting short-term traders are hedging cautiously.
Still, the data points to balanced risk rather than directional conviction. Implied volatility, by definition, is agnostic to whether the move is upward or downward.
Some traders, however, are preparing for a more hawkish or neutral Powell, contrary to market hopes for dovish signals. “If his tone is less accommodative, we could see a quick pullback — and demand for puts has picked up,” Goyal noted. Options data supports that sentiment: overnight 25-delta risk reversals currently show puts trading six volatility points over calls.
Powell’s speech, widely seen as a key moment for broader markets as well, could dictate near-term direction for digital assets, especially with macro sentiment already fragile.
