Bitcoin’s rally from last weekend hit a pause after reaching $74,000, with buying momentum fading and the cryptocurrency pulling back below $71,000.
By mid-day East Asia time on Thursday, bitcoin was trading around $70,987, down roughly 2.2% over the past 24 hours, following a surge that pushed it to its highest level since early February. The move from Saturday’s war-driven low near $64,000 to Thursday’s peak represented a roughly 15% gain in five days, though roughly a third of that advance has since been retraced.
Technical analysts pointed to key resistance levels as the likely cause for the stall. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief analyst at FxPro, noted that bitcoin ran into the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and just below the 50-day moving average — levels that often act as selling points during bear-market rallies.
Fibonacci retracements help traders estimate where a rebound might stall after a major decline, with the 61.8% level being particularly significant because it represents a recovery of roughly two-thirds of prior losses. The 50-day moving average, meanwhile, reflects the average closing price over the past 50 days, a benchmark where investors often take profits during rallies. The overlap of these two indicators made $74,000 a technically crowded zone.
Kuptsikevich said the surge was largely fueled by a short squeeze, as bearish traders were forced to cover positions. “Bulls still need to prove that the bear market is over,” he added.
Bitunix analysts highlighted a similar market structure view: the push to $74,000 triggered concentrated short liquidations, while long leverage clusters remain around $70,000, with secondary liquidity pools near $64,000. This defines a clear range for potential next moves, with both floor and ceiling visible on liquidation heat maps.
Weekly performance for major cryptocurrencies remains positive despite the pullback. Bitcoin is up 5.4% over seven days, Ether gained 2.7% to $2,080, BNB added 3.1% to $648, and Solana rose 2.1% to $88.39. Laggards include Dogecoin, down 3.7%, and XRP, essentially flat with a 0.2% decline.
The macro backdrop remains challenging. Asia’s benchmark equities, measured by MSCI, have fallen 6.4% since the Iran conflict escalated, on track for the worst weekly performance since March 2020. The U.S. dollar is set for its strongest week since November 2024, and oil prices are seeing their largest weekly jump since 2022 — conditions that rarely support sustained crypto rallies.
Friday brought some tentative relief as Asian equities recovered early losses while the dollar weakened and crude dipped on reports the U.S. is considering measures to ease energy costs.
Geopolitical risks persist. The United States Senate failed to block ongoing military actions against Iran, leaving the conflict’s duration and economic impact uncertain. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth estimated operations could last three to eight weeks, while disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz continue to affect energy markets.
For bitcoin, $70,000 — a level that had acted as resistance for the past month — now serves as the first key support test. Holding above it could signal that the breakout is genuine, while a drop below may bring the $64,000 floor back into focus.
