Standard Chartered has renewed one of the most optimistic mainstream forecasts for XRP, projecting the token could climb to $8 by the end of 2026, citing improved U.S. regulatory clarity and growing institutional participation. The call, first outlined in an April research note, implies roughly 330% upside from current levels.
Despite the bullish backdrop, XRP traded modestly lower on the day, slipping to $1.87 even as trading activity picked up sharply. Price action remained compressed around the $1.85 support zone, suggesting positioning rather than outright capitulation. Volume rose while price stayed range-bound — a combination that often signals the market is bracing for a larger move.
Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, said clearer U.S. regulation has reduced the legal overhang that constrained XRP during the previous cycle. That shift has made it easier for institutions to take exposure and has given Ripple and the broader XRP ecosystem room to expand without persistent litigation risk.
Institutional demand has been reflected in market structure. U.S.-listed spot XRP ETFs have attracted roughly $1.25 billion in net inflows since launching in November, showing steadier allocation patterns than the more volatile flows seen in bitcoin and ether ETFs. At the same time, XRP balances held on exchanges have fallen toward multi-year lows — a dynamic traders often interpret as reduced immediately available supply. While that does not guarantee upside, it can amplify price moves if demand remains stable and sellers become less willing to provide liquidity.
From a technical perspective, XRP fell 0.79% to $1.87 while volume ran about 20.8% above weekly averages, an imbalance that typically points to rotation or distribution rather than clean accumulation. The most active trading window occurred around 14:00, when roughly 57.2 million tokens changed hands as price failed to extend above $1.8792, reinforcing the view that sellers continue to fade rallies.
The $1.85 level remains pivotal. While price tested and held the zone, the broader structure remains heavy. Moving averages are still bearishly aligned and sloping lower, capping upside attempts and keeping the short-term bias tilted toward selling into strength.
Derivatives data adds another layer of complexity. Open interest climbed to $3.43 billion even as spot netflows turned negative by roughly $10.7 million, suggesting leverage is building without confirmation from spot demand. That mix can compress ranges in the near term but increases the risk of abrupt moves if positioning needs to unwind quickly.
The next notable catalyst is calendar-driven. January’s scheduled 1 billion XRP escrow unlock is approaching, an event that tends to heighten sensitivity around supply and liquidity. Even if a large portion of the tokens are re-escrowed, the unlock often increases volatility — particularly with price sitting on a key technical shelf.
For now, XRP remains in a support-defense phase with meaningful supply overhead. A sustained hold above $1.85 followed by a reclaim of the $1.88–$1.89 area would open a path toward $1.92–$1.93, where sellers have consistently emerged. A close above that zone would improve the short-term outlook and bring $2.00 and the downtrend line near $2.08 into focus.
Conversely, a decisive break below $1.85 would likely shift attention to the next demand pocket around $1.77, with deeper support near $1.60–$1.55. In the immediate term, rising volume paired with muted price action points to positioning ahead of the January escrow unlock rather than a clear directional trend — but the ongoing compression around $1.85 suggests the eventual move is more likely to be sharp than gradual.
