Carney Surges in Polymarket Bets, Challenging Poilievre’s Lead
Newly appointed Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is rapidly gaining traction in prediction markets, cutting into Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s once-dominant lead.
Polymarket data now gives Carney a 49% chance of winning the next federal election, a dramatic rise from just 26% last month. Meanwhile, Poilievre’s odds have slipped from 72% in February to 51% today.
While Canada’s next scheduled election is set for October 20, 2025, the Liberal minority government faces a potential collapse if opposition parties vote against it in a confidence motion when Parliament resumes on March 24. This could force an earlier election.
Polling and Market Sentiment Align
Carney’s surge in betting markets reflects a significant shift in public polling. The Conservatives’ lead over the Liberals has narrowed to just one percentage point, a steep decline from the 16-point advantage they held a month ago. Analysts suggest economic concerns and U.S. trade disputes have strengthened Carney’s appeal, given his experience in central banking and global finance.
Crypto’s Role in the Race?
Despite Poilievre’s pro-crypto stance—he holds a Canadian Bitcoin ETF and has previously championed blockchain innovation—digital assets have yet to become a major talking point in the campaign.
Carney, known for his cautious approach to crypto during his tenure as Bank of England governor, has not addressed the topic since taking over as Liberal leader.
With the race tightening and economic uncertainty looming, political watchers are closely monitoring whether Carney can sustain his momentum—or if Poilievre will stage a comeback in the months ahead.
