Bitcoin Volatility Remains Suppressed as Choppiness Index Signals Potential Consolidation Ahead of CPI
11 September 2025
Bitcoin’s implied volatility remains near multi-year lows, while the cryptocurrency’s sideways price action points to further consolidation ahead of key U.S. economic data.
Analyst Checkmate highlights that bitcoin’s volatility compression has intensified, measured through what he calls the “choppiness index,” a metric designed to track sideways price movements. Previous research from CoinDesk has also noted that bitcoin’s implied volatility is at historic lows, reinforcing the current consolidation trend.
The index reflects bitcoin’s recent rangebound behavior. Over the past few months, the asset has largely traded between $110,000 and its all-time high of $124,000, currently hovering near $113,000.
On a one-month timeframe, CheckOnChain reports the choppiness index at 54. Historically, levels above this have preceded notable price moves. The last instance was in early November 2024, shortly before President Trump’s election victory propelled bitcoin above $90,000, when the index peaked at 64. Another earlier spike occurred in early 2023 at the start of the current bull cycle, with the index at 57.
The current readings suggest that bitcoin may continue consolidating in the near term, particularly as volatility remains compressed.
Traders will be closely watching the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release at 12:30 PM UTC, which could serve as a catalyst for a breakout in volatility or directional price movement. Historical patterns indicate that extended periods of low volatility can precede sharp market shifts. For example, a similar consolidation phase earlier this year preceded a price decline that bottomed in April around $76,000.
