Citi Projects Bitcoin at $135K by Year-End, with Upside Potential to $199K
Wall Street giant Citi has updated its year-end outlook for Bitcoin, forecasting a base-case target of $135,000, driven by rising user adoption, macroeconomic influences, and increasing institutional demand via spot ETFs. In its most bullish scenario, BTC could soar to $199,000 before the year ends, while a bearish case—largely influenced by weak equities—would place it at $64,000.
According to Citi’s report published Thursday, the firm has revamped its crypto valuation models to account for evolving market dynamics. The new methodology blends three core drivers: user growth, macro trends, and ETF flows.
The analysis begins with a 20% projected increase in Bitcoin users and assumes continued network effect expansion, supporting a $75,000 baseline valuation. Citi then adjusts for macro headwinds, subtracting roughly $3,200 due to underwhelming performance in equities and gold. On the upside, the bank estimates $15 billion in net spot ETF inflows could add $63,000, lifting the overall target to $135,000.
ETF inflows, following the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, have become a dominant market force. Citi attributes over 40% of recent BTC price volatility to these inflows alone.
The report also emphasized that while adoption remains the foundation of its model, traditional finance integration is playing an increasingly critical role. Institutional participation through ETFs, index exposure, and improving regulatory clarity are deepening crypto’s ties to broader capital markets.
Citi noted that risks to its base-case forecast skew to the upside. ETF demand continues to exceed expectations, and user activity is showing slower-than-expected decline, suggesting more durable network effects.
“The trajectory of Bitcoin now hinges as much on capital allocation flows and institutional demand as it does on grassroots adoption,” the report concluded.
